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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 161138
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Edouard, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday and produce an area of low pressure over the far eastern
Atlantic.  Conditions appear conducive for some development of this
system by late this week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
    ...EDOUARD MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 16 the center of EDOUARD was located near 30.2, -57.3 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Hurricane EDOUARD

  • Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 20
    Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160844 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 ...EDOUARD MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 57.3W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 20
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160844 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 57.3W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 130SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 57.3W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 57.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.7N 57.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.3N 56.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 170SE 160SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 37.1N 52.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 170SE 180SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.5N 48.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 180SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 41.3N 39.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N 32.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 57.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 20
    Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160845 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 Convective cloud tops within Edouard's eyewall have occasionally been as cold as about -75C, but the eye has actually cooled during the past few hours. In addition, an 0614 UTC TRMM pass showed that the hurricane's eyewall is partially open on the north side. The Dvorak final-T estimate from TAFB increased to T5.5/102 kt but decreased to T4.5/77 kt from SAB, while the CIMSS ADT is holding steady near T5.6/105 kt. Due to the discrepancy between the various estimates, the initial intensity is being held at 95 kt. Analyses from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that about 15 kt of southeasterly shear continues to affect Edouard. The shear is expected to decrease between 12-36 hours, and since waters will be warmer than 26C during that period, the hurricane still has a chance to strengthen a bit. The intensity guidance has decreased, with none of the usual hurricane models explicitly showing Edouard reaching major hurricane strength. However, given the improving environment, the NHC intensity forecast still allows for the possibility of a major hurricane in the next 12-24 hours. After that time, Edouard is expected to weaken quickly due to colder water and increasing vertical shear. The forecast continues to show Edouard becoming post-tropical by day 4, but the cyclone may begin to struggle to maintain organized deep convection as early as day 3 while it's over 22C water. The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/11 kt. Edouard is located to the west of a mid-tropospheric high and will turn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours. An eastward acceleration is expected by 48 hours, but then the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores. The track guidance continues to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC forecast has only been nudged slightly westward during the first 48 hours to be closer to the multi-model consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 30.2N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 31.7N 57.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 34.3N 56.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 37.1N 52.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 39.5N 48.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 41.3N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/0600Z 38.5N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 160845 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics
    Hurricane EDOUARD 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 08:46:25 GMT

    Hurricane EDOUARD 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 09:06:49 GMT ]]>

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161123
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Odile, located near the east-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Polo,
located more than 300 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island
of Hawaii have changed little in organization during the past
several hours.  Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Polo are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Polo are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm POLO (EP2/EP172014)
    ...TROPICAL STORM POLO FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 the center of POLO was located near 11.9, -98.4 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm POLO

  • Tropical Storm POLO Public Advisory Number 1
    Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 160858 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 ...TROPICAL STORM POLO FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 98.4W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Advisory Number 1
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 160857 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 98.4W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 98.4W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 98.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 12.8N 99.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.1N 101.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.9N 104.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.8N 107.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.7N 108.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 98.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 1
    Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 160909 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 Scatterometer data from earlier this evening indicated that the circulation of the low pressure area south of Mexico has become better defined. The ASCAT data showed several 35-kt wind vectors over the southeastern portion of the circulation. In addition, a ship about 50 n mi south-southeast of the center reported winds to near 30 kt, which was in good agreement with the ASCAT data. Based on these data and the increase in organization of the convection overnight, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Polo. Polo becomes the sixteenth tropical storm in the eastern Pacific basin this season. The center of the tropical storm is located near the northeastern edge of the deep convection due to about 15 to 20 kt of northeasterly shear. The shear is forecast to decrease somewhat during the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual strengthening. After 72 hours, the global models suggest that upper-level easterly winds could increase resulting in increasing shear. As a result, the NHC forecast shows little change in strength late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little below the statistical guidance and is close to the intensity consensus, ICON. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/8 kt. Polo is forecast to turn northwestward today and continue in that general direction during the next couple days while it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Although the global models generally agree on this scenario, there are differences in how close Polo moves to the southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. The ECMWF takes Polo inland while most of the remainder of the guidance keeps the tropical storm offshore. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope during the first 2 to 3 days. After that time, a building ridge over northern Mexico should turn the cyclone west-northwestward. Confidence in the track forecast, especially late in the forecast period, is lower than normal. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Polo. A tropical storm watch may be required for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 11.9N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 12.8N 99.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 101.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 16.9N 104.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 18.8N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 19.7N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Tropical Storm POLO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 160858 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) X(20) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 3(30) 1(31) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 17(25) 2(27) X(27) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 5(23) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) 1(20) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm POLO Graphics
    Tropical Storm POLO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 08:58:06 GMT

    Tropical Storm POLO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 09:08:22 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm ODILE (EP5/EP152014)
    ...ODILE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 5:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 16 the center of ODILE was located near 28.1, -113.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm ODILE

  • Tropical Storm ODILE Public Advisory Number 25A
    Issued at 500 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 161153 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 500 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 ...ODILE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 113.0W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO TO SAN FELIPE * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE WILL INCREASE HEAVY RAINS AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Advisory Number 25
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 160842 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF LORETO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS * THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO TO SAN FELIPE * MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 112.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 112.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.5N 113.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.4N 113.5W...NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.4N 112.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.5N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 112.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 25
    Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160843 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 Odile continues to have a well-organized appearance on satellite imagery with bursts of deep convection continuing near the center. A couple of ASCAT passes indicated a large area of 45-kt winds over the Gulf of California just off the east-central coast of the Baja peninsula. Based on these data and the possibility of stronger winds along the immediate coast of the Baja peninsula, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt. Odile should gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours while the circulation continues to interact with land. Odile is forecast to become a tropical depression in a day or so, and degenerate to a remnant low within 48 hours. The new forecast now calls for dissipation within 3 days. Odile is moving north-northwestward at about 9 kt. The cyclone should turn toward the north, then northeast during the next day or so as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its east and a mid-level trough near southern California. The latest NHC track is again a little faster than the previous advisory and is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation over the next few days. This, along with the slow motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 27.4N 112.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 16/1800Z 28.5N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0600Z 29.4N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...GULF OF CALIFORNIA 36H 17/1800Z 30.4N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 31.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ODILE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 160843 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 0900 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P PENASCO 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HERMOSILLO 34 6 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 49 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GUAYMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HUATABAMPO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ODILE Graphics
    Tropical Storm ODILE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 11:56:41 GMT

    Tropical Storm ODILE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 09:07:35 GMT ]]>