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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 272333
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erika, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands.  Some slow development of the disturbance will be possible
through the middle of next week while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
    ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AFFECTING THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS AND APPROACHING PUERTO RICO... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 27 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.6, -65.3 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm ERIKA

  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 13
    Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280303 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AFFECTING THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS AND APPROACHING PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 65.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla Saona * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Central Bahamas Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 65.3 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is anticipated on Friday, and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near Puerto Rico during the next several hours and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. St. Croix recently reported a wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the Virgin Islands and will spread across Puerto Rico during the next several hours. These conditions should spread westward across portions of the Dominican Republic on Friday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands late Friday. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 13
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280253 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE * CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 65.3W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 65.3W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 64.7W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 65.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 13
    Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280304 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger gyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial position is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor organization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able to measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast of the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the surface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central pressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is not strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity during the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be moving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel the effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level flow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it has the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270 degrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika should begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next several hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic subtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36 and 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the southwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the northwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track guidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a tropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and moving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the latter portion of the forecast period. There is unusually high uncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that the cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of land for this to occur. The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday. These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 16.6N 65.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 280303 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 11(22) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 11(30) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 11(33) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 10(36) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 11(37) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) 9(41) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 18(38) 6(44) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 16(38) 5(43) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) 3(32) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) 4(26) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) 6(33) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 6(32) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 7(29) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 9(27) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 10(22) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 13(40) 5(45) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 3(16) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 6(45) 2(47) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) 2(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 33(42) 5(47) 1(48) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 17(44) 1(45) 1(46) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 8(28) 1(29) 1(30) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 12(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X 6( 6) 25(31) 1(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 4(14) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 26(26) 23(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 29(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE 34 77 6(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) PONCE 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN 34 79 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SAINT THOMAS 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Update Statement
    Issued at 1155 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT65 KNHC 280352 TCUAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1155 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 The Government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti. $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
    Tropical Storm ERIKA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 03:50:51 GMT

    Tropical Storm ERIKA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 03:06:48 GMT ]]>

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.
Issued at  1205 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.
Issued at  0

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272318
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jimena, located more than 900 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Mexico over the weekend.  Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some development early next week while the
system moves to the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
    ...JIMENA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE FRIDAY MORNING... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 the center of JIMENA was located near 12.3, -119.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm JIMENA

  • Tropical Storm JIMENA Public Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 280253 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015 ...JIMENA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE FRIDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 119.9W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 119.9 West. Jimena is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Jimena is expected to become a hurricane early Friday morning, and become a major hurricane on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>
  • Tropical Storm JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280253 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 119.9W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 119.9W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.3N 121.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.4N 123.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.6N 125.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.2N 127.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.8N 131.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 139.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Tropical Storm JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 6
    Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280255 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015 Jimena has continued to rapidly intensify. Several convective bands are tightly coiled and wrapping into the center where a small central dense overcast feature has developed during the past couple of hours. Upper-level outflow is nearly symmetrical and continues to expand. The initial intensity of 60 kt is based on a blend of consensus Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T3.9/63 kt. The initial motion estimate is 270/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, and Jimena is expected to move westward along the southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge for the next 36-48 hours. After that time, a turn toward the west-northwest accompanied by a decrease in forward speed is expected as a mid-latitude trough digs southward along 130-135W longitude, weakening the ridge and the steering currents. The new forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track. Jimena has been rapidly intensifying for the past 24 hours, so the question now is how long will Jimena continue this develop trend. The surrounding atmospheric and oceanic environments are quite conducive for additional strengthening. Recent SSMI and SSMI/S microwave satellite images indicate that a nearly closed eye of 15-20 nmi diameter has formed in the low- and mid-levels, which favors continued rapid strengthening. Those same images also indicated that dry mid-level air had wrapped into the northern semicircle and had penetrated the inner-core convective region, which could hinder development. However, this hindering factor should be short lived given the very robust circulation noted in conventional satellite imagery, which should quickly mix out any dry. air intrusions. Therefore, since the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain less than 10 kt, rapid intensification is forecast to continue for another 36 hours or so. After that time, the expected intense circulation of Jimena should begin to create cold upwelling since the cyclone will be moving over significantly lower upper ocean heat content values, which should cap the intensification process and induce slow weakening by days 4 and 5. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the forecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which have performed quite well thus far with Jimena. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 12.3N 119.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 12.3N 121.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 12.4N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 12.6N 125.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 13.2N 127.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 14.8N 131.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 17.5N 139.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>
  • Tropical Storm JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 280254 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Tropical Storm JIMENA Graphics
    Tropical Storm JIMENA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 02:56:07 GMT

    Tropical Storm JIMENA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2015 03:08:22 GMT ]]>