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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 240506
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

Satellite images, surface observations, and radar data from the
Lesser Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure
associated with a tropical wave is located near Guadeloupe.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, this system could become a tropical depression during
the next day or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph
across the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles.  Conditions
could become more conducive later this week while the system moves
near the southeastern and central Bahamas.  An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
disturbance later today, if necessary.  Interests from the islands
of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.  Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mudslides could occur over portions of
these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation. Please consult
products issued by your local meteorological offices for further
details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
    ...GASTON STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 23 the center of GASTON was located near 14.7, -37.1 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm GASTON

  • Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 240234 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 ...GASTON STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 37.1W ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 37.1 West. Gaston is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gaston is likely to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240233 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 37.1W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 37.1W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 36.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 39.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 41.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.5N 44.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.0N 46.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 29.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 31.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 37.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 6
    Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240234 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Gaston's cloud pattern has a figure-nine appearance, with an apparent dry slot over the southwest quadrant, and lacks a well-defined CDO at this time. The intensity is held at 55 kt in agreement with subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The system has fairly well-defined upper-level outflow and is expected to remain in a low-shear environment for the next day or so. Therefore, the cyclone is likely to intensify into a hurricane in 12 to 24 hours. In about 36 hours, however, Gaston should encounter increasing southwesterly shear associated with an upper-tropospheric trough near 50-55W. This should at least temporarily halt the intensification process, and probably cause a little weakening. The global models indicate that Gaston will pass by the trough in 72 hours, and reintensification should commence around that time. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance models through 72 hours, and close to the model consensus thereafter. The motion continues toward the west-northwest, or 290/15 kt. Gaston should gradually turn toward the northwest in response to a break in the subtropical ridge near 60W. The official track forecast, which is very similar to the previous one, follows the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.7N 37.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.8N 39.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.5N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 19.5N 44.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 22.0N 46.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 26.5N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 29.5N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 31.5N 55.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
    Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 240234 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC WED AUG 24 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
    Tropical Storm GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 02:35:39 GMT

    Tropical Storm GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Aug 2016 03:06:37 GMT ]]>

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240521
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a low pressure system located about
350 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to show
signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form later today or on Thursday while the low moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Another area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form by this weekend while the
low moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg



Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone KAY (EP2/EP122016)
...KAY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
 As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 23
 the center of KAY was located near 23.5, -121.1
 with movement NW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone KAY Public Advisory Number 21
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016  

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 232034
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAY ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...KAY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 121.1W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay
was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 121.1 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h).  A turn toward the west-northwest or west with a decrease
in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is likely, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain




Post-Tropical Cyclone KAY Forecast Advisory Number 21
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016  

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 232033
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
2100 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.6N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.7N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 121.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN





Post-Tropical Cyclone KAY Forecast Discussion Number 21
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016  

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232034
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Kay has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours.  Since
the system is over waters of around 24 deg C and forecast to soon
move over even cooler waters, deep convection is not expected to
return.  On this basis, Kay is being declared a post-tropical
cyclone on this advisory.  Dissipation is forecast by the global
models just after 24 hours.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving a little faster toward the
northwest or 310/11.  A turn toward the west-northwest or west is
likely before the low dissipates tomorrow.

This is the last advisory from the National Hurricane Center on this
system.  For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 23.5N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  24/0600Z 23.6N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/1800Z 23.7N 124.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain




Post-Tropical Cyclone KAY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016                                              

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 232034
PWSEP2
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016               
2100 UTC TUE AUG 23 2016                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAY WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN                                               



Post-Tropical Cyclone KAY Graphics



5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Aug 2016 20:34:50 GMT

 
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Aug 2016 21:07:15 GMT