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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 271126
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located along the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development of this disturbance during the next several
days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 27 Jul 2016 11:27:00 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270528
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Frank, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Georgette,
located over 1200 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days about 1000
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of this system later this week, and a
tropical depression could develop over the weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane FRANK (EP2/EP072016)
    ...FRANK BEGINNING TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 27 the center of FRANK was located near 22.5, -119.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane FRANK

  • Hurricane FRANK Public Advisory Number 23
    Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 270833 TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANK ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 ...FRANK BEGINNING TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 119.7W ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Frank was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 119.7 West. Frank is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Frank is likely to become a tropical storm later today. Frank is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Hurricane FRANK Forecast Advisory Number 23
    Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 27 2016 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 270832 TCMEP2 HURRICANE FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 0900 UTC WED JUL 27 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 119.7W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 119.7W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 119.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.3N 121.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.3N 122.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.0N 124.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.3N 125.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.3N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 119.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Hurricane FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 23
    Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 270833 TCDEP2 HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 The eye of Frank disappeared from geostationary imagery around 0600 UTC, indicative of the beginning of a weakening trend. Central convection has been gradually diminishing, and Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing. The current intensity is set at 70 kt which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Frank is starting to traverse a gradient of SSTs, so steady weakening is expected as the cyclone moves over progressively cooler waters. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN, and calls for the system to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low in about 48 hours. The initial motion continues west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge is forecast by the global models to remain to the north of Frank for the next few days, with some weakening of this ridge. Therefore, a continued west-northwestward motion with some deceleration is forecast for the next couple of days. After that, the weak and shallow cyclone is expected to move generally westward following the low level environmental winds. The official track forecast follows the dynamical consensus aid, TVCN. Data from an ASCAT overpass indicated that Frank was smaller than previously estimated, and the wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 22.5N 119.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 23.3N 121.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 24.3N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 25.0N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 25.3N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/0600Z 25.3N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Hurricane FRANK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
    Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 27 2016 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 270833 PWSEP2 HURRICANE FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 0900 UTC WED JUL 27 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Hurricane FRANK Graphics
    Hurricane FRANK 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Jul 2016 08:34:52 GMT

    Hurricane FRANK 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Jul 2016 09:04:36 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm GEORGETTE (EP3/EP082016)
    ...GEORGETTE CONTINUES WEAKENING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 27 the center of GEORGETTE was located near 19.1, -129.2 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm GEORGETTE

  • Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Public Advisory Number 23
    Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 270836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 ...GEORGETTE CONTINUES WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 129.2W ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Georgette was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 129.2 West. Georgette is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest followed by a turn toward the west is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Georgette is likely to become a remnant low within the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Advisory Number 23
    Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 27 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 0900 UTC WED JUL 27 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 129.2W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 129.2W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.8N 130.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.6N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.2N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.2N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 129.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 23
    Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270837 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016 Georgette is on borrowed time. Enhanced IR imagery shows no deep convection associated with the system, and if this condition persists, the cyclone will be declared a remnant low later today. The official forecast delays this event slightly, to allow for the possibility that thunderstorms may redevelop in the circulation. A scatterometer overpass indicated that the maximum winds were 35 kt, and that these tropical-storm-force winds were confined to the northeastern quadrant of the system. A continued spin down of the circulation over cooler waters is forecast and the cyclone should dissipate in 2-3 days. The center is difficult to locate on night time images, but my best estimate of initial motion is 310/5 kt. Georgette, or its remnant low, should move on a west-northwestward to westward heading, within the low-level tradewinds, until dissipation. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 19.1N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 19.8N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 20.6N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1800Z 21.2N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 21.2N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
    Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 27 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 0900 UTC WED JUL 27 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GEORGETTE Graphics
    Tropical Storm GEORGETTE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 Jul 2016 08:37:53 GMT

    Tropical Storm GEORGETTE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 Jul 2016 09:05:09 GMT ]]>