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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221148
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located north of the Virgin Islands remains disorganized.
Interaction of this system with Hispaniola could limit development
through tonight. However, environmental conditions are expected to
be more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near or
over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form over the weekend or by early
next week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands today, and over Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Interests in those
islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 22 Aug 2014 15:19:15 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221143
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii; on Tropical Storm Lowell, located about
900 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula;
and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Marie, located a few
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Marie are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
    ...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 22 the center of KARINA was located near 15.0, -135.6 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm KARINA

  • Tropical Storm KARINA Public Advisory Number 39
    Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 221436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 ...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 135.6W ABOUT 1325 MI...2130 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1760 MI...2835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS ]]>
  • Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 39
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 221436 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 135.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 105SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 135.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 135.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.8N 135.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.6N 134.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.8N 131.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.7N 130.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 135.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS ]]>
  • Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 39
    Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 221437 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Karina has been improving during the past 6 hours, and a banding eye feature is becoming apparent in the most recent images. An ADT objective intensity estimate and a Dvorak classification from TAFB support an intensity of 55 kt. However, based on the forming banding eye feature and an emerging small warm spot visible in the infrared BD-curve enhancement, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. The official intensity forecast follows the IVCN intensity model blend, with little change in intensity expected through the next couple of days. Beyond 48 hours, a weakening trend should commence primarily due to the cyclone traversing cooler water and the intrusion of a stable and dry air mass from the northwest. The current motion is estimated to be 055/3, or northeastward, within the mid-tropospheric flow produced by the larger tropical storm Lowell to the north. The deterministic models indicate that Lowell will continue to influence Karina to move in a northeastward to east-northeastward fashion through day 3. At days 4 and 5, a weakening Lowell is expected to pass to the north and northwest of Karina while a mid-level ridge builds in behind Lowell from the southwestern U.S. The westward building ridge is expected to turn Karina toward the northwest and eventually toward the west by the end of the period. This scenario and the official forecast is based on the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF consensus), and is close to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.0N 135.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 16.6N 134.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 17.3N 132.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 17.8N 131.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 19.0N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 20.7N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 22.3N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts ]]>
  • Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 221437 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS ]]>
  • Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
    Tropical Storm KARINA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 14:38:28 GMT

    Tropical Storm KARINA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 15:05:48 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm LOWELL (EP2/EP122014)
    ...LOWELL GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 22 the center of LOWELL was located near 22.1, -124.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm LOWELL

  • Tropical Storm LOWELL Public Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 221435 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 ...LOWELL GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 124.1W ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 221434 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 124.1W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 124.1W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.1N 125.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.3N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.1N 127.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.9N 129.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.2N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.1N 135.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 31.0N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 124.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm LOWELL Forecast Discussion Number 19
    Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 221436 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Deep convection continues to gradually decrease around the large ragged eye-like feature of Lowell. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Lowell should continue to gradually weaken as it moves over cooler waters during the forecast period, and the cyclone should become post-tropical by 48 hours, and a remnant low by 72 hours. The initial motion is 315/09. Lowell should continue moving generally northwestward during the next 48 hours as a mid-level ridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening cyclone should turn more west-northwestward as it comes under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 22.1N 124.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 23.1N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 24.3N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 25.1N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 25.9N 129.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/1200Z 27.2N 131.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z 29.1N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 31.0N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan ]]>
  • Tropical Storm LOWELL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 221435 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm LOWELL Graphics
    Tropical Storm LOWELL 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 14:35:14 GMT

    Tropical Storm LOWELL 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 15:06:33 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm MARIE (EP3/EP132014)
    ...MARIE STRENGTHENING STEADILY AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 22 the center of MARIE was located near 13.1, -102.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm MARIE

  • Tropical Storm MARIE Public Advisory Number 3
    Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 221431 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 ...MARIE STRENGTHENING STEADILY AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 102.5W ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Advisory Number 3
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 221431 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 102.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 101.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 102.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 3
    Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221432 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Marie continues to become better organized, with abundant deep convection and banding features in all quadrants. Additionally, water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level outflow is becoming increasingly well defined. The current intensity estimate is set at 45 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak estimates from UW/CIMSS. Since the tropical cyclone will be moving through an environment of low shear and very warm waters for the next several days, continued strengthening seems inevitable. Marie should become a hurricane within 24 hours and will likely attain at least Category 3 status during the forecast period. This is suggested even by the global models such as the GFS, which predicts that Marie will deepen below 950 mb in a few days. The official wind speed forecast, which could be conservative, is based on a blend of the objective intensity guidance. The storm is moving west-northwestward or 290/15 kt. The steering/track forecast scenario appears to be straightforward at this time. Over the next several days, Marie should move along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge that will be building westward from northern Mexico. The dynamical track forecast models are tightly clustered, and the official forecast is very close to the model consensus. This is essentially an update of the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.1N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm MARIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 221431 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 1500 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 35(46) 3(49) X(49) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) 1(17) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 39(75) 3(78) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) 3(46) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 2(28) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm MARIE Graphics
    Tropical Storm MARIE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 14:33:02 GMT

    Tropical Storm MARIE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 15:07:18 GMT ]]>